New Delhi [India], April 15 (ANI): India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season, according to a long-range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.
Speaking at a press conference, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department, said, “The forecast for heavy rainfall during the southwest monsoon season is being issued today by the India Meteorological Department. Across the country, the seasonal rainfall from June to September is likely to be 105 per cent of the Long Period Average, with a model error of +-5 per cent.”
Mohaptra explained that the country’s Long-Period Average (LPA), based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 centimeters.
According to the IMD, currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, atmospheric circulation patterns are similar to those observed during La Nina phases.
“The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season,” Mohapatra added.
A press release from the IMD noted that there is a strong probability, estimated at 59 percent, that the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall will fall into the “above normal” or higher category, defined as more than 104 per cent of LPA.
The forecast was generated using the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach based on climate model initial conditions from April 2025. The MME includes a group of coupled climate models that have demonstrated higher prediction skill over the Indian monsoon region.
The probabilistic forecast shows that most parts of India are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season. However, some regions, including parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, and the southern peninsular region, may receive below-normal rainfall.
The IMD added that areas with white shading on the spatial map indicate regions where the models do not show a dominant signal, and therefore, the chances for all three rainfall categories–above normal, normal, and below normal–are equal.
Regarding sea surface temperature (SST) conditions, the IMD stated that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently present over the Indian Ocean.
“The latest climate model forecast indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season,” the release said.
The IMD also highlighted that SST patterns in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are being closely monitored as they significantly influence monsoon behavior.
According to the category-wise forecast probability data, there is a 2 per cent chance of deficient rainfall (<90 per cent of LPA), a 9 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall (90-95 per cent of LPA), 30 per cent chance of normal rainfall (96-104 per cent), 33 per cent chance of above-normal (105-110 per cent), and 26 per cent chance of excess rainfall (>110 per cent).
The department will release updated forecasts in May with more detailed regional projections. (ANI)
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