Tasas de Leliq y peligro inflacionario: nace primer conflicto de la transición – ámbito.com

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Tasas de Leliq y peligro inflacionario: nace primer conflicto de la transición – ámbito.com

A 24 horas de inaugurada la transición hasta el 10 de diciembre, ayer apareció el primer nubarrón entre el macrismo y el albertismo sobre cómo manejar la política económica y financiera hasta el traspaso del poder. El tema de conflicto es la estrategia oficial de reducción de las tasas de las Leliq ante lo que, se supone desde el equipo que acompaña a Alberto Fernández, es una aceleración sin red de contención del desmantelamiento de la bomba de tiempo que representan esas letras. Se sabe que entre hoy y el viernes el Banco Central organizará una reunión del Comité de Política Monetaria (COPOM), donde se evaluará una reducción sustancial de la tasa testigo de las Leliq del 68% actual, a un nivel más cercano al 60% (o incluso menor), con la idea de forzar aún más la reducción del volumen de colocación de estas letras. La entidad que dirige Guido Sandleris dio ayer señales de ir en esta dirección, al decidir que ese instrumento deja de cobrar intereses y que no se le permitirá más a los bancos tenerlas como encaje, lo que en el mercado es interpretado como el primer paso para un futuro quite de circulación. De confirmarse esta decisión, se especula con un pago en efectivo de gran parte de los vencimientos por parte del BCRA, lo que combinado al primer pago de las Letes reperfiladas, se volcarían al mercado casi un billón de pesos, teniendo en cuenta que el stock actual de Leliq alcanza los u$s 13.000 millones.

La estrategia cayó dentro del albertismo como un baldazo de agua fría. Y como una severa preocupación. La interpretación que hace el equipo del presidente electo es que la decisión de inyectar esa montaña de dinero en las actuales circunstancias sólo puede traer consecuencias nefastas en la economía de la transición. El silogismo básico que hacen en la oposición es que con la aplicación del cepo hard la salida vía compra de dólares por la vía legal está vedada, con lo que la corriente irrefrenable de pesos se dirigirá hacia otras opciones como el dólar “blue” o el MEP, ampliando la brecha entre el oficial y los alternativos. Incluso pasaría algo peor: que la masa de pesos se redirija hacia el consumo masivo, presionando aún más a la inflación, convirtiendo la herencia a recibir el 10 de diciembre en una presión difícil de controlar. En este sentido, los números del albertismo son más que preocupantes, ya se habla de una inflación del 60% y en crecimiento. La comparación es básica: sería el mismo nivel que lo que pagaría el BCRA por las Leliq, con lo que dejarían de ser negocio y potenciarían una salida masiva hacia alternativas más virulentas. Estos análisis mencionan que el efecto huida ya se está observando en la negativa del público a renovar colocaciones en plazo fijo, donde las tasas ofrecidas por las entidades financieras, en el mejor de los casos y para clientes VIP, se ubican en el 50%. Los economistas albertistas recuerdan que el BCRA de Sandleris ya intentó fallidamente una reducción de las tasas entre enero y febrero de este año, cuando estuvo operando tasas de Leliq por debajo del 50%, provocando la última megacorrida contra el peso del Gobierno de Mauricio Macri, antes de las PASO y la debacle cambiaria del 12 de agosto. Ante el panorama, el convencimiento del equipo económico en preparación es que el BCRA debe abstenerse de tomar estas medidas en la próxima reunión del COPOM. O, en todo caso, abrir, en serio, el proceso de transición. Y optar por la prudencia monetaria extrema.

Se da así una paradoja. Desde el albertismo se reconoce que la reducción de las Leliq fue una promesa de campaña, como decisión fundamental e innegociable para poder reabrir los bancos al crédito productivo. Pero se advierte que la intención del oficialismo es aventurera y carente de realismo ante un Gobierno en desordenada retirada. Y que para poder reducir seriamente los intereses de las Leliq se necesita un concertación del sistema financiero y el productivo, que el macrismo está hoy imposibilitado de lograr.

En paralelo al conflicto, los técnicos económicos opositores (quienes deberán cubrir los cargos del ministro de Economía y la presidencia y directorio del Banco Central) no ocultan su enojo ante lo que ven como una falta de códigos desde las huestes negociadoras de Hernán Lacunza y Guido Sandleris. El eje del malestar es la versión, surgida de las usinas del oficialismo sobre que la aplicación de cepo hard se debió a la presión de del albertismo la semana anterior, ante la caída acelerada de dólares de las reservas. Según la palabra de los técnicos que acompañan al presidente electo, el oficialismo hizo correr la versión de llamadas vía WhatsApp de alguno de los economistas albertistas, donde se le reclamaba a Lacunza y a Sandleris que se tomen medidas urgentes que restrinjan el acceso a divisas por parte de los particulares. La respuesta desde el oficialismo fue que si Mauricio Macri lograba ir a un balotaje, la profundización del cepo no tendría sentido ante “la confianza que generaría la situación política de un potencial triunfo de Juntos por el Cambio en segundo vuelta”, pero que si la victoria correspondía a Alberto Fernández, se aplicaría la profundización del cepo en la versión que se conoció el domingo a la noche. Desde las huestes del próximo presidente se niegan por completo estas versiones. Sólo se reconocen las declaraciones públicas sobre los reclamos para que Sandleris cuide las reservas ante el dramático drenaje del miércoles al viernes de la semana pasada (período en el que las reservas cayeron casi u$s3.000 M) y se asegura que no hubo contactos formales ni informales entre el oficialismo y la oposición en los últimos 20 días de campaña. Y que los equipos tomaron contacto, de manera diplomática, desde el lunes pasado, luego de la visita de Alberto Fernández a la Casa Rosada.

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