Paso a paso, los plazos fijos siguen cayendo $540 millones diarios – á

Paso a paso, los plazos fijos siguen cayendo $540 millones diarios – á

Uno de los bancos extranjeros más activos en la captación de plazos fijos en pesos aplicó un recorte de los rendimientos ofrecidos de casi 1.000 puntos porcentuales en las últimas semanas. Un mes atrás, por una colocación a 30 días por hasta $100.000 la entidad pagaba cerca del 60% anual. Hoy esa misma operación sólo recibe un 50% anual. O sea, con vista a la inflación esperada no es para nada atractivo. Pero sirve de muestra de lo que viene aconteciendo en el mercado financiero desde hace semanas.

Si bien para el promedio del sistema el recorte ha sido menor, sobre todo para las pequeñas colocaciones, ya que el relevamiento del BCRA da cuenta de una tasa promedio de 53%/54%, sí debe destacarse que la baja de la tasa de referencia de las Leliq fue más abrupta. De todos modos, la pérdida de depósitos a plazo fijo en pesos de familias y empresas desde las PASO parece ahora haber “bajado un cambio”. Vale señalar que desde las PASO el sistema financiero perdió plazos fijos en pesos no ajustables privados por casi $98.000 millones, lo que representa más del 8% del stock total.

Pero es evidente que de la furia vista en agosto pos-PASO y algo en septiembre los ánimos están más calmados. En todo agosto se fueron $55.288 millones ($2.633 millones diarios), pero entre las PASO y fin de agosto la huida ascendió a $61.338 millones, a razón de $4.381 millones por día. Luego en septiembre el ritmo diario se apaciguó algo en torno a los $1.505 millones diarios (se fueron $31.610 millones) y en lo que va de octubre la caída suma $4.888 millones a razón de $543 millones diarios. Sin duda, un ritmo mucho menor que el visto en el preludio de los controles de cambios y lo que siguió a las nuevas restricciones cambiarias.

Claro que esto no significa nada con respecto a la lectura que estén haciendo los ahorristas que aún tienen plazos fijos. Es una buena señal, pero no para descorchar champán. Lo que sí debe destacarse es que el drenaje de plazos fijos en pesos, si bien puede tener cierta relación con la caída de reservas, no explica del todo la sangría del BCRA. Dado que en el período pos-PASO la caída de plazos fijos en pesos privados apenas representa no más de u$s1.800 millones, mientras las ventas de divisas del BCRA sumaron casi u$s4.000 millones. Es decir que amén del traspaso de plazo fijo a dólar, el atesoramiento sobreviene por otros canales. Por ello, no se descartan nuevos ajustes a los controles y restricciones luego del 27-O.

Con relación a la evolución de los plazos fijos hay que recordar que a partir de mediados del mes pasado se habilitó a los Fondos Comunes de Inversión (FCI) a operar directamente con el BCRA. Esto implica que los FCI pueden hacer, con parte de sus plazos fijos en pesos, colocaciones a Pases del BCRA. De esta manera el BCRA reduce el costo cuasi fiscal porque un Pase pasivo paga 58% mientras que la Leliq da 68%. Según PPI, esto explica un importante drenaje de plazos fijos hacia el BCRA, pero además destaca que “se percibe que los intereses del stock de plazo fijos no fueron renovados. Estos alcanzarían a $50.000 millones en septiembre. La liquidez de los bancos se reduce, y por ende sostienen la tasa pasiva”.

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la inflacion de septiembre fue del 5,9% (record en el ano)Por devaluación

Lo que se lee ahora

la inflacion de septiembre fue del 5,9% (record en el ano)Por devaluación


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