Lo que se dice en las mesas – ámbito.com

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Lo que se dice en las mesas – ámbito.com

Ya movió la reina. El alfil avisó (¿”Bye, bye” Alternativa Federal?). Ahora falta el rey. Pero mientras el mundillo político y económico espera alguna “sorpresa” por parte de Cambiemos, los inversores aprovechan este nuevo “veranito” otoñal que sigue con temperatura tropicales ya que el riesgo país no baja de los 940 puntos. La estabilidad cambiaria producto de que el BCRA puede intervenir sin permiso explícito del FMI allanó la vuelta de algunos “carritreidistas”, casi todos “Lecaperos” (apuestan a la tasa de las Lecap). Las acciones argentinas siguen tensionadas con el devenir de los mercados mundiales y la guerra comercial. Nadie tomó nota del status de “emergente-fronterizo”. Y a los bonos le ocurre otro tanto. Algunos arbitrajes pero nada sustancial. Los que arriesgan van al menú de letras del Tesoro donde el “roll-over” es clave para el stock de reservas del BCRA. Al respecto, fue una buena noticia, sorprenderte por su cuantía, la caída del atesoramiento en mayo. Por el momento, los 60 palos diarios del Tesoro son suficientes para atosigar al mercado. En el BCRA esperan que esta situación se mantenga hasta julio. Por lo pronto, la sequía de pesos está haciendo su trabajo sobre la demanda de dólares, y sobre el nivel de actividad. Pero el Gobierno está jugado a que no haya cimbronazos. Los gobiernos no caen por una recesión, pero si pueden volar por los aires por una crisis financiera o cambiaria. El dólar no debe dar sorpresas desagradables y menos la inflación. El resto, después se verá. Por las dudas, el BCRA tiene intacto su “poder de fuego” en el mercado de futuros. Y confía en que la munición de las reservas netas es suficiente para afrontar lo que viene que creen no serán tan turbulento. Claro que todo depende de cómo el mercado y la gente interprete los resultados de las PASO. Por ello, un alto funcionario de Economía compartió su preocupación para el día después, o sea, el 12 de agosto, sobre qué harán ahorristas e inversores. Ese es el primer mojón hacia la carrera del 22 de octubre. Mientras tanto, en los últimos días parecen haber reaccionado los plazos fijos, tanto mayoristas como minoristas, pese a que no se redujo casi nada el spread entre la tasa de referencia (Leliq) y las pasivas. Hoy la brecha sigue en cerca de 2.000 puntos y nada indica que los bancos vayan a aflojar más, sobre todo, si la inflación da señales de ceder.

Mientras los conspicuos lideres de ¿Alternativa? Federal intentaban destrabar su entuerto en Córdoba, el “candidato” Lavagna se entretuvo desayunando con empresarios, banqueros y analistas a lo largo de la semana, estuvo con las cámaras de comercio de EE.UU., Canadá y el Reino Unido y con el grupo de líderes empresariales LIDE. Dos hombres del mercado que no le perdieron la pista a Don Roberto cruzaron algunos datos. Uno de los más interesantes es la avanzada del negocio agro en los fondos comunes. Hay cierto furor por lanzar fondos de soja. Por un lado Megainver sale con Brio Valores con un fondo cerrado de soja que paga la tasa entre el spot y el futuro del grano. Otro que se lanza es Southern Trust está armado un fondo abierto de soja que replica una posición comprada de soja usando futuros. Se trata de una herramienta para que los productores puedan vender el grano pero a su vez seguir comprados en soja, explicó a un escucha ocasional. Es solo poner el dinero y el Fondo se ocupa de las garantía, diferencias, etc. Un banquero recién llegado de un tour londinense comentó, en uno de esos desayunos lavagnistas, que en Europa se respira miedo, sobre todo en las bolsas. Todos ven demasiados “canarios en la mina” (en referencia a las señales que indican futuros problemas). La estrategia que están siguiendo los inversores es vender acciones y buscar activos refugio ante el temor a la desaceleración económica mundial. Por eso está creciendo la demanda de bonos alemanes y estadounidenses, cuyos rendimientos no dejan de caer. Hasta la deuda española está en mínimos, dado que la italiana hoy está complicada. Precisamente el país transalpino es una de las preocupaciones más acuciantes en Europa. Claro sin perder de vista la suerte del “brexit”. La mirada sigue puesta en la fecha tope impuesta por Bruselas: el 31 de octubre. El otro gran tema sin resolver, y que cada vez se enquista más, es el de la guerra comercial entre EE.UU. y China. La tensión está alcanzando ya cotas difíciles de manejar. Pero los inversores están más preocupados por el mercado de bonos que por la actual guerra comercial. Las Bolsas están ahora reaccionando al miedo en lugar de a los fundamentos y se preguntan, ¿qué sabe el mercado de bonos? Los rendimientos de los bonos mundiales están en su nivel más bajo desde enero de 2018. Un economista con llegada al Gobierno, comentó preocupado la mala perfomance macro de Brasil. Dijo que el último dato no permite técnicamente hablar de recesión (dos trimestres consecutivos de crecimiento secuencial negativo), pero en cierta medida se siente casi como una, ya que la demanda interna privada (excluye el consumo del gobierno) se ha contraído durante dos trimestres consecutivos (y en tres de los últimos cuatro trimestres) con un crecimiento del consumo privado bajo y desacelerándose y la inversión nuevamente se contrajo. En el mercado esperan que el PBI crezca menos de un 1.1% en 2019, la misma tasa que en 2017 y 2018. Si la recuperación se hace lenta mala noticia para el próximo presidente argentino. Pero para mejorar el clima del encuentro con colegas comentó que un cliente lo invitó para la inauguración del primer hotel en Barcelona de Nobu Hospitality, del chef Nobu Matsuhisa, el actor Robert de Niro y el producto cinematográfico Meir Teper, y el grupo de Jordi Mestre, Selenta Group. Será un cinco estrellas de 259 habitaciones. El evento será el 12 de septiembre. Para excéntricos: el Nobu Hotel Barcelona ya acepta reservas con precios a partir de 250 euros por noche. La cadena ya opera en Ibiza, Marbella, Londres, Toronto, San Pablo, Atlanta, Tel Aviv y Varsovia.

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