Encuestas y datos económicos hicieron caer el riesgo país y “volar” hasta 10% a las acciones – Clarín

Encuestas y datos económicos hicieron caer el riesgo país y “volar” hasta 10% a las acciones – Clarín

Después de dos días de suba, el riesgo país -el indicador que mide la sobretasa que paga Argentina para endeudarse con relación al rendimiento de lo bonos estadounidenses- volvió a caer y se ubicó al cierre en 793 puntos, 3,3% debajo del jueves. El dólar, que venía de subir 4% en algo más de diez días, mostró un leve retroceso de 12 centavos en el mercado minorista, para cerrar a $ 44,51. Lo más impactante, por cierto, ocurrió en el mercado de las acciones, donde se observaron papeles que marcaron subas de más del 10%, como fue el caso de Grupo Galicia -el papel argentino más negociado en Nueva York. Este rally accionario llevó al S&P Merval a mostrar ayer una ganancia del 5,3%.

Fue un cierre muy positivo para balancear las sensibles caídas de precios de bonos y acciones que se observaron a lo largo de la semana.

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¿Qué pasó para que ocurriera este rebote? Los inversores combinaron datos duros con lo que mostraron algunas encuestas.

Por el lado de los datos duros, buenos balances de empresas en Wall Street más buenos números sobre la marcha de la economía de los Estados Unidos. A nivel local, se siguió hablando -bien- del rebote que empezó a mostrar la actividad económica, tal como informó el INDEC el jueves.

Respecto a Estados Unidos, el mercado está muy jugado a que la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos reducirá su tasa de interés de política monetaria el próximo miércoles 31. El mercado se decepcionó con el Banco Central Europeo, que el miércoles decidió dejar quieta la tasa. Pero los sondeos de Wall Street dicen que los analistas están casi convencidos de que la FED reducirá el costo del dinero.

En cuanto a las encuestas, ayer se comentó mucho entre analistas financieros -y también entre quienes toman decisiones todos los días sobre dinero propio y ajeno- el contenido de dos encuestas que se conocieron en la mañana del viernes. Una del banco de inversión brasileño BTG Pactual.

Ese trabajo, encargado a una importante consultora local pero cuya identidad el banco se reserva, afirma que al 23 de julio, la fórmula Macri-Pichetto aventaja por dos puntos a la fórmula Fernández-Fernández de cara a las PASO a realizarse el 11 de agosto. Es la primer encuesta que hace tal afirmación. “Es la única, pero BTG es una voz muy escuchada entre los fondos de inversión de Wall Street”, le dijo a Clarín un analista financiero local.

La encuesta también da por ganadora, por ahora, a María Eugenia Vidal en la carrera por la gobernación bonaerense que mantiene contra Axel Kicillof. Es un dato que por estas horas empieza a interesar casi tanto como el posible resultado de la carrera presidencial.

A su vez, la consultora Elypsis difundió entre sus clientes su propia encuesta. Señala que hay un virtual empate entre las fórmulas MP y FF, y también que Vidal aventaja por tres puntos a Kicillof.

Ambas encuestas son las primeras que dan cuenta de que el oficialismo está delante de la oposición, tanto en Nación como en Provincia. Y el mercado, parece, decidió creerles.


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