El dólar y los días hasta las PASO, una obsesión en el Gobierno – Clarín

60
193
El dólar y los días hasta las PASO, una obsesión en el Gobierno – Clarín

El hombre, una pieza clave dentro del tablero oficial, cuenta uno a uno los días que faltan hasta el 11 de agosto. Y como es economista y quizás por ciertos vicios de economista, cuenta sólo los días hábiles: con el de hoy, sus números le dan justo nueve días.

Lo aprietan la ansiedad y el deseo profundo de que ningún sofocón ocurra de aquí a las PASO. Y más concretamente, apuesta a que alguien de su mismo espacio, el jefe del Banco Central, logre mantener al dólar bajo control y a como sea.

Muy simple y muy redonda, de ahí surge la explicación acerca de por qué el conteo se limita a los días hábiles: son aquellos días en los que funciona el mercado cambiario. Por eso, no entran ni el sábado ni el domingo próximos.

Mirá también

Camino a las elecciones

Lo que tenés que saber hoy del oficialismo y la oposición.

Lo que tenés que saber hoy del oficialismo y la oposición.

De lunes a viernes

Recibir newsletter

Es de este juego finito, de equilibrios inestables, el operativo que el BCRA activó la semana pasada para enfrentar la presión sobre el dólar. Según datos publicados por el diario El Cronista, vendió US$ 1.000 millones en transacciones pactadas a futuro.

El objetivo detrás de la movida fue que quienes querían comprar dólares los compraran y se los aseguraran, pero sin poner sus pesos ahora sino, por ejemplo, a fines de agosto o de septiembre, o sea, después de las elecciones primarias. Así se evitaría engrosar una demanda que ya venía fuerte, tal cual se probó con la suba del 2% que el precio del billete anotó durante la semana.

En negociaciones similares, pero de sentido inverso, el Central había acumulado compras por US$ 3.000 millones. Y los tenía a tiro, para usarlos ante cualquier sofocón como en el caso de los 1.000 millones.

Sólo con la intención de cerrar este círculo, dos precios: el dólar a fines de agosto se negocia en unos 45,9 pesos y a 48, el de fines de septiembre.

Mirá también

Y ya que estamos, ¿cómo cotizan los presidenciables, en el mundo de los grandes operadores-apostadores?

Comenta uno de ellos: “Después de estar alrededor de los cinco puntos, la diferencia a favor de los Fernández se ha estrechado a apenas tres puntos, y con Macri acercándose. Pero pareciera que ninguno de los dos tiene mucho más para comer en el medio”.

Sigue: “Por debajo de los tres puntos, Macri andaría fantástico y entre tres y cinco tendríamos un ni-ni. Aunque para las chances de Cambiemos lo mejor no sería un ni-ni, porque estaría en los bordes. La diferencia de ocho puntos ya luce a prehistoria”.

Donde las dudas y las zonas grises desaparecen por completo es cuando salen al ruedo algunas declaraciones de Alberto Fernández, y sobre todo las últimas. “Parecía la cara racional del cristinismo y eso le daba cierto handicap, pero se nos fue al pasto”, afirman otras voces del mercado.

Obvio de toda obviedad, asociar los intereses que el Banco Central paga por las Leliq con un aumento a los jubilados o con entregarles medicamentos gratis sonó como era previsible que sonara: a un default sobre 1,2 billón de pesos. Y mentar el retraso del dólar fue semejante a anticipar una maxi devaluación o, por lo menos, un desdoblamiento del mercado de cambios.

Mirá también

Si el objetivo del candidato no fue el generarle una explosión financiera al Gobierno, queda pensar que o no calibró bien lo que decía o que debió ser más preciso. Finalmente, no estaba hablando sólo del universo financiero, sino de cosas tan pesadas y tan de mal augurio aquí como son el pago de la deuda, aunque sea la deuda del Central, y el retraso del dólar.

Rarezas en el manejo de la campaña, economistas cercanos al candidato tuvieron que salir a dar explicaciones por él. Y bien ha comenzado a saber Fernández que a veces pasa que lo dicho, dicho está.

Lo cierto, definitivamente cierto, es que las declaraciones de alguien con grandes chances de ser Presidente y sus anuncios poco claros metieron ruido donde si algo no faltaba era ruido. Incertidumbre al filo de unas PASO cabeza a cabeza, más decisiones de tomar posiciones en divisas o al fin cubrirse a tiempo, volvieron a agitar el mercado. Y así el dólar arañó los 45 pesos, el precio más alto en seis semanas y 3% por arriba de la cotización de dos lunes atrás.

Todo, pese al 60% anual que rinden las Leliq, a que los bancos han elevado al 48% las tasas de los plazos fijos y a que, muy probablemente, el BCRA volvió a vender.

Mirá también

Entre las operaciones con dólares a futuro; las reservas netas, de libre disponibilidad, y los US$ 12.000 millones que tiene asegurados de aquí a fin de año por exportaciones del complejo oleaginoso, el Central maneja un poder de fuego que supera los US$ 37.000 millones. Está claro que sólo puede usar una parte, pero la impresión en el mercado es que con eso le alcanza para pelear contra las presiones más fuertes.

Se verá qué hace Sandleris si, antes de octubre o de noviembre, la demanda empieza a llevarse reservas en cantidad y a comprometer divisas que es necesario preservar. Hoy por hoy, el jefe del BCRA libra una batalla con el dólar que es casi una batalla personal: mantenerlo a raya por lo menos hasta las PASO, como se ha comprometido ante el Presidente. Pero fuera de eso ya no será responsabilidad enteramente suya lo que ocurra el 11 de agosto, dentro de 12 días corridos.

60 COMMENTS

  1. This is the appropriate blog for anybody who needs to find out about this topic. You understand so much its nearly onerous to argue with you (not that I truly would need…HaHa). You undoubtedly put a brand new spin on a topic thats been written about for years. Nice stuff, simply great!

  2. What i don’t realize is if truth be told how you are no longer really much more smartly-preferred than you might be now. You are very intelligent. You understand thus considerably when it comes to this matter, made me individually imagine it from so many numerous angles. Its like men and women don’t seem to be fascinated unless it is one thing to do with Woman gaga! Your own stuffs excellent. At all times take care of it up!

  3. Good day! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could find a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!

  4. I simply want to say I am beginner to blogging and site-building and certainly liked you’re website. Almost certainly I’m planning to bookmark your blog post . You amazingly have perfect stories. Kudos for revealing your webpage.

  5. Just wish to say your article is as surprising. The clearness in your post is just excellent and i can assume you’re an expert on this subject. Well with your permission allow me to grab your RSS feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please continue the rewarding work.

  6. An impressive share, I recently given this onto a colleague who was simply performing a little analysis for this. And then he actually bought me breakfast because I ran across it for him.. smile. So well then, i’ll reword that: Thnx for any treat! But yeah Thnkx for spending some time to discuss this, Personally i think strongly concerning this and enjoy reading much more about this topic. If you can, as you grow expertise, could you mind updating your blog site with a lot more details? It is actually extremely of great help for me. Large thumb up in this blog post!

  7. Good – I should certainly pronounce, impressed with your site. I had no trouble navigating through all tabs as well as related information ended up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it at all. Reasonably unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, web site theme . a tones way for your client to communicate. Nice task.

  8. Thank you for the good critique. Me and my cousin were just preparing to do a little research on this. We grabbed a book from our area library but I think I’ve learned better from this post. I am very glad to see such great info being shared freely out there.

  9. Hi! I’ve been following your weblog for a while now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Dallas Texas! Just wanted to mention keep up the great job!

  10. I wish to show my appreciation to you just for bailing me out of this issue. After scouting throughout the the web and seeing tricks that were not powerful, I assumed my entire life was well over. Being alive devoid of the solutions to the issues you have fixed by means of this website is a critical case, as well as the kind which could have adversely damaged my career if I had not come across your web page. Your own skills and kindness in maneuvering the whole thing was tremendous. I’m not sure what I would’ve done if I had not encountered such a thing like this. I can now relish my future. Thanks a lot so much for the high quality and sensible guide. I won’t be reluctant to propose your web blog to any individual who would like counselling about this issue.

  11. Sapid Agency is a Search Engine Optimization company in New York City that provides SEO Services. Their proprietary SEO strategies help struggling websites and aspiring business owners to rank their websites higher in multiple search engines like Google , Yahoo and Bing. They provide local and gmb map ranking for businesses in NYC and many other local areas. Find more at https://www.sapidagency.com/ @ 145 E 57TH NEW YORK, NY 10022, USA, +1 971 341 5608 USA

  12. MetroClick specializes in building completely interactive products like Photo Booth for rental or sale, Touch Screen Kiosks, Large Touch Screen Displays , Monitors, Digital Signages and experiences. With our own hardware production facility and in-house software development teams, we are able to achieve the highest level of customization and versatility for Photo Booths, Touch Screen Kiosks, Touch Screen Monitors and Digital Signage. Visit MetroClick in NYC at http://www.metroclick.com/ or , 121 Varick St, New York, NY 10013, +1 646-843-0888.

  13. Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to help with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Appreciate it!

  14. Thank you for this article. I would also like to mention that it can be hard when you’re in school and merely starting out to create a long credit standing. There are many students who are just simply trying to make it and have a good or positive credit history can sometimes be a difficult matter to have.

  15. Might be near extremely difficult to encounter well-updated americans on this issue, yet somehow you appear like you comprehend what you’re writing about! Gratitude

  16. When I initially commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get several emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Appreciate it!

  17. I haven¡¦t checked in here for a while because I thought it was getting boring, but the last several posts are great quality so I guess I will add you back to my everyday bloglist. You deserve it my friend 🙂

  18. Hi there I am so grateful I found your blog, I really found you by accident, while I was browsing on Aol for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say thank you for a marvelous post and a all round entertaining blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to read through it all at the moment but I have saved it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a lot more, Please do keep up the superb work.

  19. My brother suggested I might like this blog. He was entirely right. This post truly made my day. You can not imagine just how much time I had spent for this information! Thanks!

  20. Magnificent beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amend your website, how can i subscribe for a blog web site? The account aided me a acceptable deal. I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided bright clear idea

  21. It really is nearly extremely difficult to encounter well-informed individuals on this subject, regrettably you come across as like you realize the things you’re indicating! Bless You

  22. hey there and thank you for your info – I’ve certainly picked up something new from right here. I did however expertise a few technical issues using this web site, since I experienced to reload the website a lot of times previous to I could get it to load correctly. I had been wondering if your web hosting is OK? Not that I’m complaining, but sluggish loading instances times will sometimes affect your placement in google and could damage your quality score if ads and marketing with Adwords. Well I am adding this RSS to my e-mail and can look out for a lot more of your respective intriguing content. Ensure that you update this again very soon..

  23. I have seen lots of useful issues on your internet site about computers. However, I’ve the impression that laptops are still more or less not powerful sufficiently to be a good choice if you frequently do tasks that require loads of power, for instance video editing and enhancing. But for internet surfing, word processing, and quite a few other common computer functions they are okay, provided you don’t mind the small screen size. Thank you for sharing your ideas.

  24. Woah! I’m really digging the template/theme of this website. It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s difficult to get that “perfect balance” between usability and visual appearance. I must say you’ve done a very good job with this. In addition, the blog loads very fast for me on Opera. Outstanding Blog!

  25. Hi there, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam remarks? If so how do you protect against it, any plugin or anything you can advise? I get so much lately it’s driving me crazy so any support is very much appreciated.

  26. I’m truly enjoying the design and layout of your website. It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more enjoyable for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a developer to create your theme? Great work!

  27. I’m not that much of a online reader to be honest but your sites really nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your site to come back in the future. Many thanks

  28. Hello, you used to write fantastic, but the last few posts have been kinda boring… I miss your great writings. Past few posts are just a little out of track! come on!

  29. Do you mind if I quote a couple of your articles as long as I provide credit and sources back to your webpage? My blog site is in the very same area of interest as yours and my visitors would genuinely benefit from a lot of the information you present here. Please let me know if this okay with you. Thanks a lot!

  30. F*ckin’ tremendous issues here. I am very happy to see your post. Thank you a lot and i am looking ahead to contact you. Will you kindly drop me a e-mail?

  31. Currently it appears like Movable Type is the top blogging platform available right now. (from what I’ve read) Is that what you are using on your blog?

  32. I and my pals were looking through the excellent secrets on your website and so quickly developed a horrible feeling I had not expressed respect to the web site owner for those techniques. The young men appeared to be so glad to see them and have now certainly been using those things. Thanks for actually being simply thoughtful and then for selecting this sort of superb resources most people are really desperate to learn about. Our own sincere apologies for not expressing gratitude to you earlier.

  33. I have been absent for a while, but now I remember why I used to love this website. Thanks, I’ll try and check back more frequently. How frequently you update your site?

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here