Crisis económica | El mercado automotor va camino a retroceder a niveles del 2009 – El Destape

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Crisis económica | El mercado automotor va camino a retroceder a niveles del 2009 – El Destape

En 2017 se necesitan 11,2 sueldos para comprar un vehículo chico, en diciembre de 2018 se necesitaron 15,5 sueldos.

09 de febrero 2019

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Debido a la crisis económica que afecta de forma directa a la industria automotriz, el sector podría retroceder los patentamientos de vehículos a los niveles de 2009, por el incremento en la cantidad de sueldos que se necesitan para comprar un vehículo y la fuerte contracción de los salarios reales, entre otros factores.

Según el informe de INVENOMICA que publicó Ámbito, el mercado de patentamientos de enero “muestra que no hay síntomas de recuperación y el 2019 posiblemente sea mucho peor de lo que se esperaba hace tan solo unos meses”.

De acuerdo con las cifras, enero comenzó con patentamientos por 58.250 unidades (autos + livianos) y representó el comienzo más flojo desde 2016.

No obstante, la consultora advierte que “comparar con dicho año no es correcto” ya que “en 2016 había una demanda reprimida que fue naturalizándose con el correr de los meses con la normalización del tipo de cambio, la apertura de importaciones y la eliminación de algunos impuestos en los vehículos de mayor valor de mercado. Así, a pesar del flojo comienzo, el mercado de patentamientos cerró en 683.000 unidades (autos + livianos) en 2016”.

Ahora bien, si se elimina el 2016 como comparación, hay que remontarse a enero de 2005 (con 51.000 unidades) para encontrar un arranque de año peor que 2019. Vale recordar que en 2005 los patentamientos apenas alcanzaron las 361.000 unidades.

La consulta identifica varios motivos que indican que no se verificará una recuperación de la industria en el segundo semestre.

El incremento en la cantidad de sueldos para comprar un vehículo es uno de los principales factores de explicación. Mientras que en 2017 se necesitan 11,2 sueldos para comprar un vehículo chico, en diciembre de 2018 se necesitaron 15,5 sueldos. Es decir, que en un año se retrocedió a niveles que no se registraban desde 2011.

Además, los primeros dos meses del este son poco alentadores, dado que los precios de los vehículos más las bonificaciones se incrementaron en torno a un 6%, mientras que los incrementos salariales se encuentran muy por debajo de dicho guarismo.

Por ende teniendo en cuenta la evolución de las variables “duras” planteadas, “lo más factible es que 2019 se registre un nivel de patentamientos similar al de 2009 (el total anual fue de 493.000 unidades). Para superar ese nivel la recuperación de la economía debería ser mucho más rápida (comenzando en el segundo trimestre del año) y fuerte (con tasas de crecimiento de la economía que superen el 5% a partir de julio)”.

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