The most anticipated event of the week which was the BTC/USD weekly close is now over. The price has just closed below both its 50 Week EMA as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This means that the ongoing weekly candle now has a higher probability of being red and could at least fall towards the 200 Week EMA if not lower. The Stochastic RSI on the weekly time frame shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has not been this overbought since the beginning of the bear market. Even when the price topped in late 2017, the Stochastic RSI was much lower than it currently is. This means that there should be no doubt that the price is poised for a sharp decline, the only question is when.
Bitcoin (BTC)’s close below the 50 Week EMA and the 61.8% Fib retracement level should have been a confidence booster for the bears but the exact opposite has happened. The number of margined shorts has declined around 20% and could continue to decline if BTC/USD trades sideways. Bitcoin (BTC) may be quite close to its true bottom but the fact remains that it is more overbought than it was when the bear market started. Perhaps, the sentiment is also a lot more bullish than it was back then. When the price topped around December, 2017 and the rally slowed down, a lot of people were concerned that BTC/USD had a parabolic run and will not have to come down. This time however, a few pumps to the upside has convinced majority of the bulls that the bear market is over regardless of what the technicals say.
If the rise in BTC/USD was gradual and sustainable with higher highs and higher lows, it would be a bit hard to deny it can’t keep going up even if the price had been overbought short term. However, that is now what has happened. We have seen a clear lack of bullish momentum in the price action. There is too much friction and the price is too weak to break past resistance levels smoothly, but then we see a pump to the upside and the bulls are excited again. However, every time the bulls push after a pump, the whales dump on them. So far, they have allowed the price to rally to trap in as many bulls as possible with their high leveraged positions.
The weekly chart for BTCUSDShorts shows what is going on. The number of margined shorts has declined to its trend line support as the bulls confidently expect a rally towards $6,000 or higher. The retail bears have been affected by this sudden sentiment shift in favor of the bulls which is why the shorts have declined so heavily. The weekly chart shows that BTCUSDShorts is now long overdue for a strong trend reversal which would see the number of shorts rise again. This means that Bitcoin (BTC) is far from being out of the woods just yet and could see significant downside in the months ahead.